Picture an investor who bought Bitcoin near the top in October 2025. The price had just crossed $126,000. Confidence was everywhere. Then the slide began. Month after month, the chart bled lower. By the end of June 2026, Bitcoin had fallen under $58,000. That is a drop of more than half from the record high. The portfolio felt broken. The headlines felt worse.

Now picture that same investor today. The price sits near $80,000. A major research firm has just told its clients that the bitcoin bear market ended back in June, at the very moment of maximum pain. Not last week. Not after a big rally. In June, when almost nobody wanted to hear it. So who is right? The fear, or the research?

This is the exact pain point for thousands of holders right now. Should you buy here, sell here, or simply wait? Buying too early in a bitcoin bear market hurts. Selling at the bottom hurts far more. And doing nothing while a new accumulation phase quietly forms has its own cost.

Here is the surprising fact that frames this whole article. Galaxy Research, led by Alex Thorn, published a client note on October 22 titled “Why now is the time to add and hold BTC.” The public version followed on October 26. Its core claim is blunt: “We think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance.” By October 22, Bitcoin had already climbed to $81,391. That is 39% above the June low, before most retail investors even noticed the turn.

This article takes that claim apart, piece by piece. We will look at the 50-week moving average signal, the behaviour of long-term holders, the collapse in leveraged positioning, and the cycle clock. We will also steelman the other side, because price still trades roughly 35% below its record high, and the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates tonight, October 28. If you want the full picture on that decision, read our companion piece on what the October 28 Fed decision means for BTC. Galaxy itself named the exact level that would prove it wrong, and we will hold the thesis to that standard.

Executive Summary

• Galaxy Research argues the bitcoin bear market ended in June 2026, when price bottomed under $58,000.
• The technical core of the call: Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks through October 18, after spending 44 weeks below it.
• Selling pressure has faded hard. Coins untouched for five years or more moved about 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 67,000 per month in 2024.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly 87,000 BTC since June, quietly soaking up supply.
• Leverage has left the building. CME asset-manager net longs fell 57% from the October 2025 peak, which Galaxy reads as “fast money has left.”
• The counter-case is real: price remains about 35% below the record high, ETF flows turned negative last week, and tonight’s Fed decision can shake any thesis.
• Galaxy named its own fail case: a weekly close below $76,540, not recovered within a month, would challenge the whole call.
• Important disclosure: Galaxy is a crypto financial firm, trades as GLXY on Nasdaq, was founded by Mike Novogratz, and holds BTC. Its call is an outlook, not proof.

First, the Fundamentals: Bear Markets, Accumulation, and How Bottoms Are Judged

Before judging Galaxy’s call, we need shared definitions. Loose language creates loose decisions. So let us pin down three terms: bear market, accumulation phase, and market bottom.

What a Bitcoin Bear Market Actually Is

A bear market is a sustained decline of 20% or more from a recent high, paired with weak sentiment. In traditional markets, the 20% rule is the standard marker. Bitcoin regularly falls 20% inside healthy uptrends, so analysts often demand more. A fall of 35% to 50% with months of lower highs feels very different. By any honest measure, the slide from above $126,000 in October 2025 to under $58,000 in June 2026 was a genuine bitcoin bear market. It lasted roughly eight months. It erased more than half the price. It also flushed out leverage, tourists, and weak hands, which is exactly what bear markets are designed to do.

What an Accumulation Phase Looks Like

An accumulation phase is the quiet period after a bottom. Price stops making new lows. Volatility cools down. Long-term believers buy steadily, without chasing. Sellers grow exhausted because everyone who wanted out has already left. On a chart, accumulation often looks boring: a wide range, false starts, and slow grinding progress. That boredom is the point. Supply moves from impatient hands to patient ones. Galaxy’s central argument is that Bitcoin has been doing exactly this since June.

How Analysts Judge a Bottom

Nobody rings a bell at the low. Analysts instead stack evidence from four families of signals:

• Trend signals, such as price reclaiming the 50-week moving average and holding above it.
• Valuation signals, such as MVRV and price versus its realized price, which estimate whether holders sit on gains or losses overall.
• Supply signals, such as how many old, dormant coins are moving, and whether spot ETFs are absorbing supply.
• Positioning signals, such as futures exposure on venues like the CME, which show whether speculators are crowded or washed out.

One signal alone proves nothing. Bottoms are judged by agreement across all four. That is why our broader look at what history and cycles actually show about crypto downturns stresses patience over prediction. Galaxy’s report is interesting precisely because it claims agreement across all four families. Let us test that claim.

Galaxy’s Evidence, Piece by Piece

Galaxy Research did not publish a vibe. It published a stack of measurable claims. Below, we walk through each one, explain what it means, and note why it matters. The original reporting is covered by CoinDesk’s report on the Galaxy note, and the call has been widely discussed since.

Evidence One: The 50-Week Moving Average Reclaim

The 50-week moving average is simply the average closing price of the last 50 weeks. Long-term investors treat it as the line between danger and recovery. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks trading below that line during the decline. Then, in the week ending September 20, it climbed back above it. By October 18, it had closed above the line for five straight weeks.

Why does this matter? Galaxy checked the history. Since 2011, there have been four similar instances where price reclaimed the average after 20 or more weeks below it. In every case, price never closed more than 8.4% below the recovery mark over the following twelve months. In every case, price eventually went on to make new peaks. That is a small sample, and small samples deserve caution. But a four-for-four record is not nothing. It is the strongest single plank in Galaxy’s platform.

Evidence Two: The 200-Week Average Held as a Floor

The 200-week moving average is the slowest of the major trend lines. In past cycles, it has marked deep-value territory. During this decline, the worst weekly close landed only 4.7% below that line. In other words, the selling barely dented the market’s deepest support zone before buyers stepped in.

Two valuation gauges support the same story. Bitcoin stayed above its realized price throughout the downturn. The realized price is the average price at which all coins last moved, a rough cost basis for the whole network. Holding above it suggests the average holder never went underwater in aggregate. Meanwhile, MVRV, which compares market value to realized value, bottomed at 1.10. Readings near 1.0 have historically appeared near major lows, when market value sits just above the network’s cost basis. Neither gauge screams euphoria. Both whisper exhaustion, on the selling side.

Evidence Three: Old Coins Stopped Moving

Some of the most telling data in crypto comes from dormant coins. When coins that have sat untouched for five years or more start moving, old holders are distributing. When that flow dries up, distribution is ending. The trend here is striking. Coins untouched for 5+ years moved about 67,000 BTC per month in 2024. That fell to 47,000 BTC per month in 2025. In 2026, it dropped again to roughly 34,000 BTC per month.

At the same time, demand quietly absorbed supply. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in approximately 87,000 BTC since June. That steady bid matters, because ETF buying is programmatic and price-insensitive compared with retail flows. For context on how fragile ETF demand can be in the short term, our analysis of Ethereum ETF outflows and what they signal shows the other side of the flow coin. And institutional appetite is not limited to funds: corporate buyers keep adding too, as we covered in our look at corporate Bitcoin treasury purchases. Galaxy’s supply story, in short, is fewer motivated sellers and a persistent structural buyer.

Evidence Four: The Fast Money Has Left

Bear market bottoms often form when speculative positioning hits zero. Nobody is left to panic, because the panickers already left. Galaxy points to futures data from the CME, the main regulated venue for institutional Bitcoin futures. Asset-manager net longs on the CME have fallen 57% since the October 2025 high, from 43,300 BTC down to 18,400 BTC. Separately, nine major hedge funds cut their futures and ETF exposure by more than half.

Galaxy reads this as “fast money has left.” The interpretation cuts both ways, and we will explore the bearish reading shortly. The bullish reading is simple. Crowded long positioning fuelled the top. Empty positioning removes the fuel for forced selling. When nobody is overextended, bad news produces smaller cascades. That is typically the soil in which an accumulation phase grows.

Evidence Five: The Cycle Clock

Bitcoin runs on a four-year rhythm driven by the halving, when the new supply of coins is cut in half. Galaxy notes that day 916 after the halving has now passed. Past cyclical bottoms, it says, landed between day 777 and day 912 of the cycle. If history rhymes, the bottom window has already closed, and June fits it.

Cycle timing is the softest plank in the case. Sample sizes are tiny, and every cycle has its own macro backdrop. Still, as a supporting argument rather than a lead one, it adds weight. Galaxy also folds in a long-term macro point: rising US government debt continues to strengthen the hard-money case for holding BTC over years, not weeks.

The Evidence at a Glance

The Contrarian View: Why the Bears Are Not Convinced

A good thesis survives hostile questions. So let us ask them. The coverage of Galaxy’s call, including TokenPost’s report on the note, carried the bullish framing widely. The sceptics have material to work with, too.

Price Is Still 35% Below the High

Start with the simplest fact. At about $81,391 on October 22, Bitcoin remained roughly 35% below its October 2025 record above $126,000. Regaining that peak requires a gain of about 53% from those levels. Uptrends that stall halfway are a classic bear-market pattern. Rallying 39% off a low feels impressive, yet bear markets have produced such rallies before failing again. Our earlier warning piece on why a Bitcoin pullback may not be over walks through that trap in detail.

Tonight’s Fed Decision Is a Live Risk

Second, macro risk is immediate. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision tonight, October 28, at 23:00 PKT. Markets widely expect a hold in the 3.75%–4.00% range, with pricing around 91–95% for that outcome. A fully expected hold can still rattle markets through tone, guidance, and surprises in the statement. Bitcoin trades around $80,000–$81,400 into the event. Thin sentiment plus a binary event means volatility either way. Anyone treating Galaxy’s note as a buy signal tonight is trading the Fed, not the thesis. Our Fed decision preview for BTC maps the scenarios.

ETF Flows Were Negative Last Week

Third, the flow picture is not one-directional. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows were negative last week, even while the since-June total stayed strongly positive at roughly 87,000 BTC absorbed. Bulls call this noise inside an uptrend of demand. Bears call it the first crack in the structural bid. Both readings are available; the data alone does not settle it. What would settle it is Galaxy’s own warning marker, covered in the levels section below: ETF holdings falling below the July 13 trough of 1.22M BTC.

Light Positioning Can Also Mean No Buyers

Fourth, positioning cuts both ways. Galaxy reads the 57% drop in CME net longs as healthy washout. A sceptic reads the same numbers as absent conviction. Institutions cut exposure by more than half, and they may stay away until price proves itself. “Fast money has left” is bullish only if it returns. Until futures and ETF data show rebuilding, the positioning argument remains a glass half full or half empty, depending on your seat.

And Yes, Galaxy Is Talking Its Book

Finally, the disclosure every reader should keep in view. Galaxy is a crypto-focused financial services firm founded by Mike Novogratz. It trades on Nasdaq under GLXY. It holds BTC, and its business benefits when clients add crypto exposure. None of that makes the research wrong. The data points in the note can be checked independently. But incentives matter in finance, always. Treat the call as a well-argued outlook from an interested party, never as proof.

Key Levels That Will Settle the Argument

Debates end at levels. These are the prices and markers both camps are watching, drawn directly from the facts above.

Note how useful Galaxy’s framing is here, whatever your view. The firm published its claim and its invalidation in the same breath. That is how analysis should work. For readers wondering whether $100,000 can arrive quickly once momentum builds, our earlier piece on Bitcoin’s path toward $100K and the catch attached explores that scenario.

Step by Step: How to Accumulate Responsibly If the Thesis Is Right

Suppose the evidence persuades you, at least partly. The next question is execution. Accumulating well is a process, not a single heroic buy. Here is a disciplined framework.

Step 1: Decide Your Position Size Before Anything Else

Position sizing is the whole game. Decide what share of your total portfolio Bitcoin may occupy, and what loss you can accept without panic. Many cautious investors cap crypto at a small single-digit share of net worth. Write the number down. A size you chose calmly in advance is a size you can hold through a 20% dip. A size chosen in excitement becomes a forced sale later. Our guide on evaluating any coin before you invest offers a fuller framework for this decision.

Step 2: Use Dollar-Cost Averaging Instead of One Big Bet

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) means buying a fixed amount on a fixed schedule, weekly or monthly, regardless of price. It removes timing pressure. It also matches the nature of an accumulation phase, which by definition unfolds over months, not days. If price rises, your early buys win. If price falls, later buys lower your average cost. DCA cannot guarantee profit. It can guarantee that one bad day never defines your whole position.

Step 3: Respect the Levels Instead of Chasing Candles

Use the levels table above as a map. Planned buying near support zones, such as the $76,540 warning area, carries a defined invalidation. Chasing vertical green candles carries none. Many accumulators split orders: regular DCA as the base, plus limit orders at pre-set levels for dips. The rule that matters most is Galaxy’s own: if price closes a week below the warning level and stays there, the thesis weakens, and so should your pace.

Step 4: Choose a Reputable Venue and Keep Fees Visible

Where you buy matters almost as much as when. Use established, regulated exchanges with clear fee schedules. Our complete guide on choosing a safe, low-fee crypto exchange compares what to check, from custody practices to withdrawal costs. Regulatory clarity keeps improving as well; developments such as those in our report on Japan’s crypto regulation show how fast the rulebook is maturing, and US oversight questions are mapped in our guide to CFTC crypto rules and enforcement.

Step 5: Secure What You Buy

Accumulation without custody discipline is a loan to strangers. For meaningful amounts, move coins to a wallet you control and back up your recovery phrase offline. Our explainer on how modern crypto wallets work and how to choose one covers the options. Small, frequent DCA buys can sit on the exchange briefly, but the destination should always be self-custody.

Step 6: Track the Thesis, Not Just the Price

Set a monthly review. Check the four signal families: the 50-week average, ETF flow totals, dormant-coin activity, and CME positioning. If the evidence strengthens, hold your plan. If two or more families flip bearish together, slow down or stop. You are not married to the thesis. You are renting it, with data as the landlord.

Cost Analysis: What Accumulating Actually Costs

Fees and spreads quietly tax every strategy. The table below uses general, illustrative cost ranges to show how methods compare. Your exchange’s actual schedule always governs; check it before trading, since fee tiers vary by venue and volume.

Two habits cut costs for almost everyone. First, batch withdrawals instead of moving every small DCA buy on-chain. Second, automate the buy itself; an automatic plan you forget about beats a manual plan you keep postponing. Staying informed cheaply matters too. Building a daily news routine, as we suggest in our guide to reading crypto news more smartly, costs nothing but attention.

Case Studies: Four Illustrative Accumulation Scenarios

The four scenarios below are illustrative examples, created to show how different investors might apply, or misapply, the ideas in this article. They are not real people, and their outcomes are hypothetical teaching aids, not records of actual trades.

Case Study 1: The Cautious Saver Who Bought the Boredom

Problem: In this illustrative scenario, a salaried saver watched the bitcoin bear market from the sidelines. She wanted exposure but feared buying before another leg down.

Strategy: She capped Bitcoin at 4% of her portfolio and chose weekly DCA, starting after the June low, with a written rule to pause only if price closed a week below Galaxy’s warning level.

Execution: Small automatic buys ran every week through the quiet summer range. She ignored daily headlines and reviewed signals once a month.

Results: In this scenario, her average entry sat far below the October price near $81,000, because most buys landed during the post-bottom range. One dip toward the warning zone tested her, but the weekly close held, so the plan continued.

Lessons: Boring phases reward boring systems. Pre-written rules converted fear into a checklist.

Case Study 2: The Trader Who Waited for the 50-Week Reclaim

Problem: In this illustrative scenario, a swing trader refused to buy downtrends after being burned earlier in the decline. He needed objective confirmation before committing capital.

Strategy: He waited for two consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, then scaled in across the following weeks rather than buying the first close.

Execution: The reclaim arrived in the week ending September 20. He entered in three tranches, keeping a stop framework tied to the same average that triggered the buy.

Results: In this scenario, he missed the exact bottom by a wide margin, yet captured the confirmed phase with far less stress than a knife-catching attempt would have cost him.

Lessons: Confirmation costs some upside. It buys sleep, clarity, and a defined exit if the signal fails.

Case Study 3: The FOMO Buyer Who Chased the First Green Month

Problem: In this illustrative scenario, an investor bought nothing near the lows, then panicked as price rose 39% off the bottom. Headlines about a possible run at $100,000 pushed him to act.

Strategy: There was no strategy. He deployed his entire intended position in one market buy, at a size larger than his comfort zone, because the move felt urgent.

Execution: The buy landed days before the Fed decision. Ordinary pre-event volatility swung his position sharply, and he sold part of it in frustration near a local dip.

Results: In this scenario, the thesis may still prove right, yet his outcome lagged it badly. Timing and sizing errors turned a reasonable idea into a poor personal result.

Lessons: Being right about direction is not enough. Size and schedule decide whether you survive your own emotions.

Case Study 4: The Small Treasury That Treated BTC Like a Policy

Problem: In this illustrative scenario, a small online business held excess cash that inflation kept eroding. The owner wanted a treasury policy, not a trade.

Strategy: The firm adopted a written rule: convert a fixed slice of monthly surplus into Bitcoin, hold in self-custody with multi-signature security, and rebalance yearly.

Execution: Purchases ran monthly regardless of headlines. The owner tracked ETF holdings against the 1.22M BTC floor as the policy’s health check.

Results: In this scenario, the treasury’s average cost tracked the accumulation range rather than any single day’s drama, and governance removed emotion from every purchase.

Lessons: Policy beats prediction. This mirrors, at small scale, the logic behind the corporate treasury moves covered elsewhere on this site.

Tools for Tracking Accumulation Signals and Buying

You cannot follow a data-driven thesis with vibes. These ten real tools cover the four signal families, plus execution and custody tracking. Pricing changes often, so treat the pricing notes as tiers to verify on each site, not fixed quotes.

1. Glassnode

• Pros: Deep on-chain data, including dormant coin movement, realized price, and MVRV-style valuation metrics.
• Cons: Advanced metrics sit behind paid tiers; the dashboard can overwhelm beginners.
• Pricing: Free tier with limited metrics; paid subscriptions for full access.
• Best use: Tracking long-term holder behaviour and valuation extremes.

2. CryptoQuant

• Pros: Strong exchange-flow and miner data; clear alerts for coins moving to or from exchanges.
• Cons: Some charts need interpretation skill; free plan limits history and features.
• Pricing: Free plan available; premium plans unlock full datasets.
• Best use: Watching whether coins are flowing toward exchanges (selling intent) or away.

3. TradingView

• Pros: Best-in-class charting; the 50-week and 200-week moving averages are two clicks away; alerts are excellent.
• Cons: Free plan restricts indicators and alerts; endless community scripts vary in quality.
• Pricing: Generous free tier; paid plans add indicators, alerts, and layouts.
• Best use: Weekly-close discipline: checking the reclaim and the $76,540 warning level.

4. Farside Investors ETF Flow Tracker

• Pros: Clean daily table of US spot Bitcoin ETF flows and holdings; fast to check; free.
• Cons: Narrow scope by design; no charting or alerts.
• Pricing: Free.
• Best use: Monitoring the 87,000 BTC since-June absorption trend and the 1.22M BTC holdings floor.

5. CME FedWatch Tool

• Pros: Shows market-implied probabilities for Fed decisions, such as tonight’s widely expected hold at 3.75%–4.00%.
• Cons: Probabilities shift with every data release; it tells you odds, not outcomes.
• Pricing: Free.
• Best use: Gauging whether a Fed surprise is priced in before events.

6. CoinGlass

• Pros: Derivatives dashboards covering open interest, funding, and liquidations across venues.
• Cons: Data density can mislead beginners into over-trading noise.
• Pricing: Free tier; paid plans for advanced data and API access.
• Best use: Checking whether leverage is rebuilding too fast during rallies.

7. Coinbase

• Pros: Regulated US exchange; simple recurring-buy feature suits DCA; strong consumer protections.
• Cons: Retail fees on the simple interface run higher than pro trading screens.
• Pricing: No subscription required; per-trade fees and spreads apply, varying by method and size.
• Best use: Set-and-forget weekly DCA for US-based accumulators.

8. Binance

• Pros: Deep liquidity and low headline trading fees; auto-invest tools support scheduled buys.
• Cons: Regulatory status varies by country; the feature set can overwhelm new users.
• Pricing: Tiered trading fees based on volume; recurring buys use standard spot fees.
• Best use: Cost-conscious DCA with limit-order flexibility.

9. Kraken

• Pros: Long operating history, strong security reputation, recurring buys and a clean pro interface.
• Cons: Instant-buy fees are higher than pro order-book fees; availability varies by region.
• Pricing: Tiered fees; instant purchases cost more than scheduled or pro trades.
• Best use: Security-focused accumulators who still want scheduling tools.

10. CoinGecko

• Pros: Free portfolio tracking, price alerts, and broad market context in one place.
• Cons: Portfolio data is only as good as your manual entries or connected accounts.
• Pricing: Free core product; premium tier adds analytics depth.
• Best use: Watching your average cost and overall exposure at a glance.

Best Practices for Accumulating During a Possible Bottom

• Write your rules before you fund the account. Size, schedule, and invalidation level, on paper, in advance.
• Review weekly closes, not intraday noise. Galaxy’s whole framework runs on weekly data. Match your attention to your timeframe.
• Keep an evidence journal. Log ETF flows, positioning, and the moving-average status monthly. Memory rewrites itself; notes do not.
• Separate the event calendar from the thesis. Tonight’s Fed decision can move price 5% without saying anything about June’s bottom.
• Automate purchases and withdrawals. Automation removes the two moments where emotion does the most damage.
• Verify every big claim at the source. Galaxy’s numbers are checkable on public trackers. Check them.

Common Mistakes That Wreck Accumulators

• All-in on a single headline. One research note, however strong, is not a position-sizing strategy.
• Confusing the warning level with the low. The $76,540 line is the 50-week average zone, not the June bottom under $58,000.
• Ignoring the disclosure. Forgetting that the forecaster holds the asset skews how you weigh the forecast.
• Chasing after a 39% run. Buying the story at the lows takes discipline; buying it after the move takes only fear of missing out.
• Neglecting custody. Coins left indefinitely on any platform carry counterparty risk that no thesis can offset.
• Refusing to update. If ETF holdings break the 1.22M BTC floor, the evidence changed. So should you.

Expert Tips Worth Stealing

• Judge bottoms by agreement, not by any single chart. Trend, valuation, supply, and positioning pointing the same way is rare and meaningful.
• Let other people’s exhaustion work for you. Dormant coins falling from 67,000 to 34,000 BTC a month is what seller exhaustion looks like in data.
• Treat round numbers as sentiment gauges. The $100,000 level matters because everyone watches it, not because it changes the fundamentals.
• Size for the fail case first. If a weekly close below $76,540 that never recovers would ruin you, your position is too big today.

Industry Trends Behind the Call

Galaxy’s note lands inside three larger shifts. First, spot ETFs have made institutional demand visible daily, turning flows into a public scoreboard. Second, corporate treasuries keep normalising Bitcoin as a balance-sheet asset. Third, regulated futures on the CME now shape how analysts read positioning, replacing guesswork with weekly data. Together, these trends mean modern bottoms are judged with better evidence than any previous cycle enjoyed. They also mean bad evidence travels faster, which is why primary sources matter more than summaries.

Future Outlook: What Happens Next

Three paths branch from here. In the bullish path, price holds above the 50-week average, ETF holdings build on the July trough, and positioning rebuilds gradually as confidence returns; a run toward and beyond $100,000 becomes the market’s working story. In the neutral path, price grinds sideways in a wide range for months, the classic texture of a long accumulation phase. In the bearish path, a failed Fed week or a macro shock drives a weekly close below $76,540 that does not recover, ETF holdings slide toward the floor, and Galaxy’s call joins the long list of early bottom declarations. Notice that two of the three paths still reward patient, sized, scheduled buying. Only the third punishes it, and the third announces itself through markers you can monitor rather than guess. That asymmetry is the real content of Galaxy’s argument.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What exactly did Galaxy Research say about the bitcoin bear market?

In a client note dated October 22, 2026, titled “Why now is the time to add and hold BTC,” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn wrote that the firm believes the bear market ended in June and that Bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance. The public report followed on October 26.

2. When and where did Bitcoin actually bottom?

According to Galaxy’s analysis, the low came in June 2026, with the June 30 low under $58,000. Bitcoin later reached $81,391 on October 22, about 39% above that low.

3. Why does the 50-week moving average matter so much?

Bitcoin closed above it for five straight weeks through October 18 after 44 weeks below. In the four similar reclaim cases since 2011, price never closed more than 8.4% below the recovery mark in the next twelve months and eventually made new peaks.

4. What would prove Galaxy wrong?

Galaxy named its own fail case: a weekly close below $76,540, the 50-week average level, that is not recovered within a month. Spot ETF holdings falling below the July 13 trough of 1.22M BTC would also break a core leg of the thesis.

5. Is $76,540 the same as the June low?

No. The June low was under $58,000. The $76,540 figure is the warning level tied to the 50-week moving average. Confusing the two leads to badly placed stops and exits.

6. What are dormant coins, and why do they matter?

Dormant coins are coins that have not moved for years. Coins untouched for 5+ years moved about 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 67,000 in 2024. Falling movement suggests long-term holders have largely stopped distributing.

7. How do spot Bitcoin ETFs fit the accumulation case?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly 87,000 BTC since June, providing a steady structural bid while old-holder selling faded. Short-term flow weeks can still be negative, as last week showed.

8. Should I buy Bitcoin now based on this report?

This article explains the evidence; it cannot decide for you. If the thesis persuades you, disciplined methods like position sizing and dollar-cost averaging are safer than a single large buy, especially with a Fed decision landing tonight.

9. Does Galaxy have a conflict of interest?

Yes, in the ordinary financial sense. Galaxy is a crypto financial firm (Nasdaq: GLXY) founded by Mike Novogratz, and it holds BTC. Its incentives favour crypto adoption, so weigh its outlook accordingly and verify its data independently.

10. What role does tonight’s Fed decision play?

The Fed decides on October 28 at 23:00 PKT, with a hold at 3.75%–4.00% widely priced in. A surprise or hawkish tone could shake price sharply in the short term without settling the longer accumulation debate either way.

Conclusion

The bitcoin bear market debate now has a clear shape. On one side stands Galaxy Research with a rare thing in crypto: a falsifiable claim. The bear market ended in June, it says, and the proof stack includes five weekly closes above the 50-week average, a 200-week average that barely broke, dormant-coin selling cut nearly in half since 2024, 87,000 BTC absorbed by ETFs, washed-out CME positioning, and a cycle clock whose bottom window has closed. On the other side stand honest doubts: a price still about 35% below the record high, a negative ETF flow week, absent institutional conviction, a live Fed risk tonight, and a forecaster who owns the asset.

Your next steps are practical. First, decide whether the evidence persuades you, using the levels table as your scoreboard. Second, if you act, act like an accumulator: sized position, scheduled buys, self-custody, and a written invalidation rule. Third, keep learning; you can read more about our approach on our about page, and questions are welcome through our contact page.

So here is the question to sit with tonight, as the Fed decision lands and the weekly candle takes shape: if the bottom really was June, and the evidence has been public ever since, what will your future self wish you had done with this October?

Not financial advice: This article is educational information about market research and publicly reported data. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Cryptocurrency is volatile and can lose value quickly. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.